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『博彩交易所』幫您整理了三大投資銀行利用計量模型計算世界盃足球賽的結果

 
 
冠軍預測:
 
瑞銀UBS(前八名):
Country Likelihood to win the World Cup 2010
Brazil            22%
Germany      18%
Italy             13%
Netherlands  8%
France          6%
Argentina     5%
Spain            4%
England        4%
 
高盛Goldman Sach(前八名):
Country     Model Probability
Brazil           13.76%
Spain           10.46%
Germany      9.40%
England       9.38%
Argentina     9.08%
Netherlands 7.07%
Italy             6.46%
France          6.13%

 
小摩JP Morgan(前八名):
Table 12: Penalty Shoot-out metric: combining “Ability to Score” with “Goal-keeper Ability” (from-3 to +3)
                       Scoring Ability  Goalkeeper Ability  Penalty Shoot Out Metric
England             3.00                   0.30                            1.65
Spain                 1.88                   0.69                            1.29
Netherlands       0.58                  1.68                             1.13
Germany            1.49                  0.69                             1.09
Ivory Coast       1.04                   0.51                             0.78
Cameroon         0.18                   1.35                             0.77
New Zealand     0.34                   0.69                             0.52
Nigeria              -0.30                  1.02                             0.36
 

三份報告加權計算過後得出
 

Brazil              16.75%
Germany        14.04%
Italy                9.39%
Spain              8.91%
Netherlands   8.84%
England          8.79%
France            5.91%
Argentina       5.91%

 
冠軍最可能是巴西隊
 
ps.附上三份投資銀行報告以作參考
 
ubs:http://www.ubs.com/2/e/medlib/wmr/IGWM_spez_2010_en.pdf

goldman sach:http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-economic-outlook/the-world-cup-2010-doc.pdf

jp morgan:http://fliiby.com/file/852008/9tl8ldwbs7.html

以上由『博彩交易所』整理